Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 706 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 706 · LAS → ORD

departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 8:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±9 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at ORD that day

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 706 · LAS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?