Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 742 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 742 · TPA → IAH

departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 6:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 742 · TPA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?