Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 794 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 794 · EWR → SFO

departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 6:12 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±12 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ 3pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.42 in

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling9,633 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 794 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?