Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow

UA 809 · SFO → MNL

departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 8:18 PM PST

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±7 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MNL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MNL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

MNL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 809 · SFO → MNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to MNL?