Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8124 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 8124 · DEN → IAH

departs 10:02 AM MT · arrives 1:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8124 · DEN → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?