Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8131 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, November 12

UA 8131 · IAD → EWR

departs 5:49 PM ET · arrives 7:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

91% chance · ±14 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
46%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
30%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.55 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8131 · IAD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?