Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1018
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1018 · CUN → DEN
departs 3:26 PM EST · arrives 5:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.