Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1040
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1040 · BWI → JAX
departs 4:19 PM ET · arrives 6:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 11/11 13%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.