Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1045 · PDX → LAS
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 3:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 11/11 9%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 30%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at PDX that day
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.