Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1049 · ALB → BWI
departs 5:37 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 22%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ALB that day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.35 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.