Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1156 · SAN → MDW
departs 11:43 AM PT · arrives 5:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from SAN are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.