Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 117
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 117 · SLC → SAN
departs 4:01 PM MT · arrives 5:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.