WN 1193 · GRR → MCO

departs 4:02 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Your aircraft is N485WN (B737), coming in as WN 362 from MCO: landed 3:22 PM ET.

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

86% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1193 · GRR → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?