Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1249 · BUR → STS
departs 1:53 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 38%
Mon 11/16 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at STS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BUR are often late
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at STS that day
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
STS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.