Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1285
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 1285 · CMH → TPA
departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,167 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.14 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.