Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1305
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 1305 · BWI → ORF
departs 4:16 PM ET · arrives 5:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 24%
Tue 11/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.