Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1406 · DAL → LGA
departs 3:13 PM CT · arrives 7:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 11/11 27%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 60%
Sun 11/15 50%
Mon 11/16 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
69%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
69%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
50%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
20%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.