Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1490
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1490 · DAL → SAT
departs 4:13 PM CT · arrives 5:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 11/11 13%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.