Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 1492 · CHS → BWI
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 24%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 25%
Tue 11/17 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from CHS are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at CHS that day
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.