Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1586
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1586 · BWI → MCO
departs 1:38 PM ET · arrives 4:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 15%
Sun 11/15 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.