Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1717 · BWI → AUS
departs 1:51 PM ET · arrives 4:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 28%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.