Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 1972 · GEG → OAK
departs 12:01 PM PT · arrives 2:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 33%
Sun 11/15 16%
Mon 11/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from GEG are often late
↓
GEG usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.