Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 203
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 203 · ATL → BWI
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 22%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 20%
Tue 11/17 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,333 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.