Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2068
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2068 · BWI → MCO
departs 3:18 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sun 11/15 33%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.