Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2103 · HOU → LAS
departs 2:16 PM CT · arrives 3:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 41%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16 37%
Tue 11/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.