Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2138 · ATL → BWI
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 22%
Mon 11/16 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.