Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2451 · MEM → BWI
departs 2:16 PM CT · arrives 5:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.