Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 245
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 245 · IND → TPA
departs 1:32 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.