Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 246 · MDW → BUF
departs 12:53 PM CT · arrives 3:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 19%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BUF that day
↑
12pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.