Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 249 · MDW → MCI
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 20%
Sat 11/14 19%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MDW that day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.