Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2711 · STT → BWI
departs 3:41 PM AST · arrives 7:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 30%
Sat 11/14 36%
Sun 11/15 40%
Mon 11/16 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave STT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.