Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2742
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 2742 · MCO → BWI
departs 2:21 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 25%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 29%
Mon 11/16 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.