Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2885 · LAS → STL
departs 2:04 PM PT · arrives 7:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 11/11 20%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 41%
Sun 11/15 45%
Mon 11/16 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.