Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 293
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 293 · MBJ → MCO
departs 3:41 PM EST · arrives 5:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 11/11 49%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 32%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MBJ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.