Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 2945 · MDW → ROC
departs 12:54 PM CT · arrives 3:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 25%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at ROC that day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.