Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 2945 · ROC → MCO
departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 43%
Mon 11/16 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ROC that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.70 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.