Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 305
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 305 · HOU → CUN
departs 4:32 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM EST
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sat 11/14 12%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at CUN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CUN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
CUN (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.