Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3069
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 3069 · BWI → JAX
departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 27%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.