Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 306 · CUN → HOU
departs 6:51 PM EST · arrives 8:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.