Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 309 · SAN → BWI
departs 10:11 AM PT · arrives 5:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.