Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3150
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3150 · PHL → BNA
departs 2:27 PM ET · arrives 3:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 29%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
PHL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,067 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.23 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.