Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3221
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3221 · OAK → OGG
departs 12:46 PM PT · arrives 4:14 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 11/11 20%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 34%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 26%
Mon 11/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 40 kt forecast at OGG that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 40 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.