Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3263 · DAL → TYS
departs 12:02 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 23%
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at TYS that day
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.