Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 3409 · PHX → COS
departs 2:22 PM MT · arrives 4:08 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 37%
Sun 11/15 30%
Mon 11/16 31%
Tue 11/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
COS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.