Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3424 · MAF → AUS
departs 1:41 PM CT · arrives 2:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 25%
Sun 11/15 24%
Mon 11/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAF
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.