Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3545
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 3545 · LGA → OMA
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 6:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 60%
Sun 11/15 47%
Mon 11/16 60%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±7 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
39%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.51 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.