Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 356
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 356 · AUS → LAS
departs 5:19 PM CT · arrives 6:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 46%
Sun 11/15 44%
Mon 11/16 38%
Tue 11/17 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±8 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.