Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 359
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12
WN 359 · BWI → MEM
departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 3:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 11/11 16%
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 26%
Sun 11/15 25%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.