Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Nov 5, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, November 12 Tomorrow
WN 3791 · SAT → MDW
departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 5:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 11/12
Fri 11/13 30%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MDW that day
↓
Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.