WN 3829 · SJC → BWI

departs 1:39 PM PT · arrives 9:58 PM ET

Your aircraft is N8509U (B738), coming in as WN 3035 from MDW: in the air, landing about 12:32 PM PT, 63 min before departure.

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,933 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3829 · SJC → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?